Description: This article discusses data mining and the statistics of coincidence, and provides “guidelines for backtesting integrity” to help ensure results have value beyond mere coincidence. Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of the Horizon, a publication of BARRA, Inc., and is reprinted with permission.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: This article discusses the new profession of financial engineering and the fit of actuaries in this profession.

Description: As equity markets decline and become more volatile, the likelihood of significant guaranteed benefit claims increases, while increases from mortality and expense fees declines. The article illustrates how to use a derivative contract, a properly structured total return swap, to turn a company's uncertain M&E revenue patterns into predictable revenue.

Description: What Do You Mean You Are An FRM From GARP? by David N. Ingram from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, February 2002, Issue No. 38.

Description: The article is a summary of Session 9PD at the Society of Actuaries annual meeting in New Orleans in October 2001. Terminal funding the purchase of annuities by pension plans usually at plan termination and stable value GIC's became major product lines in the 1980's. This article describes the changes in the those products, the markets and regulatory environment.

Description: This article discusses market declines and the impact that white collar crime or gross dishonesty in financial reporting can have on market declines.

Description: The article discusses how well the GDP Gross Domestic Product reflects the true state of the economy. It also describes the process of calculating the GDP advance estimate, preliminary estimate and then final estimate.

Description: The author speculates that the world wide promulgation of fair value accounting standards will make the normal shape of the rate curve downward sloping rather than the upward sloping curve that is normally seen. The author explains why this trend is expected.

Description: The international risk management community is now being served by two professional organizations, the Global Association of Risk Professionals GARP and the Professional Risk Managers' Association PRIMIA. The article describes both professional organizations.