Description: This is a paper from the session on Climate Change Effects at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This is a paper from the session on the Asia at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This article provides a perspective on the SOA’s Aging and Retirement research reports, and on the types of research that are included. The SOA does a lot of research on different retirement topics, and many people are not aware of the scope of this work. This article offers an overview of the big picture as we think about the future. The article describes longer-term challenges to the US retirement system and recent developments that have affected the system and created uncertainty. It provides an overview of what individuals have said about retirement and their view of post-retirement risks and planning in a variety of consumer research studies. It then reviews some of the research and provides information on summary reports which provide insight on the findings from multiple related research reports. It also provides information about consumer education and what is currently available and in process. It then focuses on how the SOA is helping retirement professionals understand current and expected change and discusses areas of uncertainty as we help those we serve deal with change.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: This report presents research into recent population mortality experience as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: This session is based on research sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries to develop new methods and tools to enhance current mortality modeling and measurement actuarial practices. The presentation will discuss research accomplishments to date including a new mortality dataset that subdivides the U.S. population by education level and provides insightful analysis on mortality inequalities and mortality by cause of death. Additionally, research currently being performed or planned will be explained.

Description: This is one of eight essays from the collection: 2020 Living to 100 Essays.

Description: Excellent big picture view for planning a social insurance system with pay-as-you-go, required self-funded, and voluntary plans.

Description: The article offers a more nuanced approach to caregiving as the population ages, suggesting our current focus on planning leaves out most people. Instead find solutions for non-planners!