Description: Chronically low interest rates are a reflection of macroeconomic trends. Care must be exercised in making assumptions regarding mean reversion.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: This article questions the validity of long term market return expectations using macroeconomics and analytical arguments.

Description: This study revisits and updates the termination experience of single family mortgages originated during the early 1980s under the purview of the FHA and insured under the FHA's Mutual Mortgage Fund Insurance MMIF. It also provides a summary of the lessons learned from the study.

Description: Demographic challenges due to longevity increases and low fertility rates will lower economic growth as measured by GDP. By deconstructing GDP growth between population and productivity growth the article describes the problem and presents potential solutions. The article builds off an SOA research paper published in November 2023, Demographics and Productivity: Drivers of Economic Growth.

Description: Latin America has acquired an economically strategic importance in the process of globalization that it did not have a decade ago. The region has attracted significant attention and investment by the international insurance industry. This article explores some issues related to the growth in supply of insurance companies capacity, the relatively slower pace of growth in consumer demand for their products, and the factors that companies can identify in forming their strategies to achieve their objectives.

Description: Overview on current trends in medical practice impacting the LTC insurance business with a focus on dementia, risk stratification, and predictive modeling.

Description: Argues renewable energy will displace fossil fuels, leading to investment opportunities and risks

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “The Houston Experience: FHA Originations During 1981-1984.”