Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: The is the informal discussion transcript from Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Securitization of mortality risks is an alternative risk management tool that may have some advantages over reinsurance. The purpose of this paper is to study mortality-based securities, such as swaps and mortality bonds, and to price the proposed mortality securities. We focus on group life annuity data, although the techniques could be applied to other lines of annuity or life insurance.

Description: By disinformation we mean the inclusion of data that should not be considered in a study. In this paper we discuss a case in which the presence of disinformation was clear, but it was not possible to determine with certainly which records were extraneous.

Description: The Lee and Carter LC method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. That popularity is first due to the model simplicity. Moreover, the LC model has given successful results for various countries e.g. U.S., Chile, G7 countries. However, some difficulties arose when using population data from certain countries such as UK and Australia. In the present paper, the LC model is applied to data from four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Singular Value Decomposition SVD, the Weighted Least Square WLS and the Maximum Likelihood estimate MLE are used. These approaches give satisfactory results. The appropriate fitting period needs, however, to be well chosen. The properties of the model's parameters are studied using a bootstrap simulation.

Description: Discussion on Living to 100 Session 4A. Papers presented: Inference for Logistic-type models for the Force of Mortality and, Predictive Modeling for Advanced Age Mortality

Description: Discussion of “Health Expectancy” paper and reply from author, Faye Albert. Discussion of Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality and Discussion of Health, Wealth and Wisdom - Living Long, Living Well: An Actuary Muses on Longevity

Description: This is the informal transcript from Session 1A: Data Sources and Analysis from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript from Session 3B: Comparing Mortality of Different Groups from the 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Mortality in the U.S. states at ages 80 and older and over years 1959–2011 analyzed and compared with mortality levels in 13 high-longevity countries.