Description: Discussion the issues/difficulties associated with setting mortality assumptions for the later durations of life insurance illustrations. Because some UL products incorporate low cost of insurance charges in late durations as part of the current scale in the product design, some conclude that mortality improvement assumptions are being employed in the disciplined current scale, in violation of the Model Illustrations Regulation.

Description: Discussion on Living to 100 Session 4A. Papers presented: Inference for Logistic-type models for the Force of Mortality and, Predictive Modeling for Advanced Age Mortality

Description: Discussion of “Health Expectancy” paper and reply from author, Faye Albert. Discussion of Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality and Discussion of Health, Wealth and Wisdom - Living Long, Living Well: An Actuary Muses on Longevity

Description: A discussion of the need to search for alternative mortality tables other than the 1975- 80 and 1990-95 tables to use as the base table, which may be more appropriate for a particular company or specific products.

Description: The impact of the underlying mortality table selected as a basis for projecting mortality results

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: Second article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 4B. Papers presented: Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity with Applications to US Data and Some Implications for US Public Programs and, Mortality Measurements at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Master Death File

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 6B: Health Status and its Impact on Mortality