Description: The intent of this paper is the analysis of the influence of risk that took place during winter and summer 2006 on economic results of utilities selling power to final customers. Efficient risk management requires the restructuring of the approach to company management. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: In this paper, we derive three important longevity Greeks on the basis of an extended version of the Lee-Carter model that incorporates stochastic volatility.

Description: This paper analyzes the likely increase in volatility for a representative plan and then considers the implications of adopting a hedged portfolio as a means of reducing the increased volatility. It then analyzes the effects of adopting a stochastic funding method which represents a simple extension of traditional expected value funding methods. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This paper discusses the quality of healthcare verses the price of healthcare and puruses individuals and doctors making decisions for their own healthcare costs and services.

Description: This monograph explains the ways actuaries are or could be involved in the self-insured employer health plan marketplace today and in the future.

Description: Simultaneous modelling of operational risks occurring in different event type/business line cells poses the challenge for operational risk quantification. Invoking the new concept of Levy copulas for dependence modelling yields simple approximations of high quality for multivariate operational VAR. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Given the lower incidence rate, use of decision tree techniques like Classification and Regression Tree CART in understanding credit or operational risk becomes quite challenging. A commonly adopted solution is biased sampling approach, where more weights are attached to bad customers to artificially hike the incidence or bad rate. While adopting this type of biased sampling approach, question of the best weight arises. This paper adopts an iterative approach in identifying the best weight. The best weight for bankruptcy BKO profiling problem in hand occurred when the incidence rate was around 50 percent where entropy reaches its maximum.

Description: The paper focuses on value creation for European health insurance companies through the practical application of integrated ERM frameworks.

Description: There have been continual advances in the modeling of financial series but most are aimed at the pricing of derivatives. Different criteria are needed for development of scenarios for risk management. Some recent methods will be reviewed with an eye on risk-management applications, including using the simulated method of moments to parameterize multifactor models, fractional differencing and other methods to model series with persistent autocorrelation, and models to flatten out the volatility smile, such as jump-diffusion models. These methods will be illustrated with applications to inflation, interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates.