Description: Review of events and highlights from the Spring 2019 SOA Health Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: Review of events and highlights from the Spring 2019 SOA Health Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.

Description: ACA risk adjustment has now been in play for years. The original intent of risk adjustment was to help stabilize the market through measuring risk levels of each issuer. However, the risk adjustment program may have introduced additional uncertainty due to annual market shifts and model changes, making risk adjustment estimation is a difficult task. This article analyzes the results over time, including impacts from market changes and model changes.

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: 2014 marked a new beginning for small group(SG) health insurance market ushered in with adjusted community rated products priced from a single risk pool. It was anticipated that the mandated pooling of the risk would result in higher rates, especially for healthier groups. It is the aim of this article to show whether that view bears out in the actual market rates and if it is higher, then by how much. The article provides a point in time(1st quarter 2025) comparison of premium rates under two segments of the small group market, namely Qualified Health Plans(QHP) available under the small group ACA market versus self-insured Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements(MEWA) plans.

Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: Unpaid Loss Reserve fair and reasonable test and two legal cases Utah Medical and Minnesota Lawyers Issue No. 39.

Description: Pricing Small Group Medical Coverage Renewal Pricing regression to the mean, blending of experience and manual rates, small group reform laws. Issue No. 40.

Description: Review of six opinions requried in The Statement of Actuarial Opinion for the Health Annual Statement. Issue No. 48