Description: This paper considers the problem of actuaries acting as advisers to individuals. This activity is covered by regulations, discussed in the paper, that currently recognize other professions but not actuaries. The paper recommends that actuarial organizations lobby the relevant legislative and regulatory bodies to provide actuaries pursuing an investment-focused career path with the same exemption status as other professionals.

Description: This paper defines health expectancy as that part of life expectancy where the person is expected to be healthy. It also breaks down the remainder of life expectancy into two unhealthy categories, one where assisted living will be necessary, and one where a skilled nursing facility will be necessary. These expectations are calculated for many combinations of age, other demographic characteristics, and current health issues.

Description: This report is a follow-up to the 2018 Group Long-Term Disability Experience Study Report. This report analyses the same dataset, but focuses on the new variables that are included with that dataset, and also details the application of various Predictive Analytics techniques to the data.

Description: Excerpts from a conversation with Alan Mills regarding his work in complexity science and agent-based modeling.

Description: We highlight a new approach leveraging predictive analytics to identify high risk and rising risk opioid users for more effective screening and follow-up care.

Description: This article delves into a new line of statistical thinking of the author, that may be useful for product development actuaries. The key concept is how product design can produce products that diversify quickly, meaning that the company can be confident of a profitable product line, based on fewer sales than might be true for other designs.

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: Using basic actuarial principles to develop a reasonable spending budget and to keep spending/savings on track to meet financial objectives.

Description: Overview on current trends in medical practice impacting the LTC insurance business with a focus on dementia, risk stratification, and predictive modeling.