Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: John Shuttleworth explains why our exam syllabus needs updated and shares examples of inconsistencies in the material and actual financial economics. Edward Friend responds to this article.

Description: Feature article discussing the 2009 price action - periods of extreme distress and incredible euphoria across the global financial markets. The reversals experienced from asset class lows to their highs have not been seen in decades.

Description: Exam FM/2 sample questions for Derivatives Markets textbook.

Description: How assumptions like market returns and variable like saving rate should be incorporated into sound financial planning. How to analyze retirement readiness.

Description: Falling equity markets and interest rates have devastated pension plans worldwide during the past several years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 companies enjoyed a collective pension surplus of $252 billion in 1999. Even after the 2003 market rally, they face a deficit of $179 billion in 2003 Bianco 2003. These events have spotlighted the weakness of current funding and investment practices for corporate defined benefit pension plans. This article presents a case for securing all accrued benefits through “Full Funding.”

Description: In this paper, we illustrate how to value American-style options using the Least-Squares Monte Carlo LSM approach proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and investigate whether there exists an optimal regression complexity in the LSM framework for options pricing. In particular, we use the smoothing spline in the regression step, which allows us to control the regression complexity on a continuous scale with just one tuning parameter. Numerical results on American put options indicate that we need to use more than a linear regression, but as the regression becomes more complex, the accuracy of the LSM method quickly deteriorates. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: Public DB plans have fatal designs such as basing benefits on a few years of earnings. Redesigning DB to be similar to SS will alleviate solvency challenges.

Description: Chapter 4 describes growth issues including multiple account problems of the old SAR, the amount of money in the AFOREs, and portfolio composition in the AFOREs. From Retrospective and Perspective Analysis of the Privatized Mandatory Pension System in Mexico, M-RS02-1.