Description: Article is a detailed discussion of the Risk Management and Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (RMORSA) Model Act that was recently approved by the NAIC and is being adopted by legislatures across the country.

Description: Analysis of consequences of investment risk taking by public pension plans.

Description: Part one of a two-part article, to be contined in Feb 2014. Provides useful rules of thumb for breaking out investment return into components of periodic arithmetic return, geometric return, the volatility of returns and the correlation of returns by asset class. Develops and relates these axiomatic concepts into rules of thumb for estimating quantiles of a range of stochastic returns.

Description: The article describes the refined formula for measuring interest C3a risk that is effective 12/31/2000.

Description: This survey of emerging risks attempts to track the risk manager population‘s thoughts about emerging risks across time. The top 4 emerging risks from this third iteration of the survey are: 1. US current account deficit/fall in US dollar. 2. Blow up in asset prices/excessive indebtedness. 3. Oil price shock/energy supply interruptions. 4. Chinese economic hard landing.

Description: This report introduces actuaries and risk managers in the insurance and pension industries to current literature discussing growth rates in the past and future expectations.

Description: History of Life Insurance insolvencies and evolution of statutory reporting requirements and laws to enable improved control over preventing insolvencies. Reflects my extensive personal knowledge serving on regulatory and industry boards and committees regarding these developments. A key item of solvency control in Risk Based Capital. References provided for FRBC/insolvency data from NAIC and the GAO.

Description: Research report describing the results of an Emerging Risks Survey conducted in November 2008. Emerging risks can be thought of from two perspectives: completely new risks that have never been seen before, and risks that are evolving in unexpected ways.

Description: The costly, time-consuming and complicated process of enterprise risk management (ERM) can be improved in many companies and made less tedious for managers by using reasonable data and templates obtained from peer group entities. The models used to calculate economic capital (EC) often underestimate its value because they do not consider decision-maker perception about risk. We assume here that managers, as the decision-makers, have appropriate business understanding and they can provide substantial information about risk characteristics regarding all business processes. Therefore we are focused, in this paper, on collecting data from managers across the different businesses to derive the appropriate knowledge about risky events, the importance of particular types of risk, the relationship between the risk outcomes and the level of risk control in a particular industry. We conclude that the collected data has a high potential for use as a benc hmarking reference and analysis for improving ERM models for individual businesses.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification