Description: People naturally observe risk in the form of the range of experienced gains and losses which is usually represented in statistical terms by standard deviation. In most cases, there are not enough observed values to reliably discern the true amount of losses that are possible in extreme situations. Statistical techniques that have long been applied to insurance company risks are being used to extrapolate from observed risk to extreme tails of the distribution of gains and losses. These processes are essentially an extrapolation from the “known” risk of volatility near the mean to “unknown” risk of extreme losses. “Fat tails” is a term often applied to risks where the likely losses in rare situations significantly exceeds the predictions of a Gaussian (“thin tailed”) distribution. This paper will look at the relationship between the observed risk and the extreme risk in statistical insurance r isk models and discuss how we might create a discussion among model users about the appropriateness of that relationship for specific types of risks.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Bitcoin Fallacies

Description: Updated study of metrics for measuring whether US mulitemployer pension plan contributions paid down unfunded liabilities or met regulatory benchmarks

Description: Using the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI) database, we examined which characteristics best predict and describe high-cost members.

Description: A plain-language, high-level explanation of employer withdrawal liability issues, including how they grew to be large and barriers to their collection.

Description: Statistics about entertainment industry pension plans.

Description: Analysis of the impact of projected multiemployer pension plan insolvencies over 20 years on affected participants and participating employers.

Description: The revised 2013 Study includes three pivot tables: Individually Billed Group Life, Self-Administered Group Life, and AD&D, which will enable companies to perform their own analysis to supplement the findings of this report.

Description: Summary of the ReFocus 2018 Conference, jointly sponsored by the American Council of Life Insurers and the SOA.

Description: A Regulatory Perspective on Rate Review Before and After the Affordable Care Act