Description: Abstract: This paper provides background on the characteristics of the upper-truncated Pareto distribution and suggests some diagnostics, based on order statistics, to assist in selecting the upper truncation point, which affects the tail of the distribution in a risk model.

Description: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: An introduction to the Goals-Progress-Strategy (GPS) strategic risk management framework: an original synthesis of scenario based ERM, the Logical Framework Approach, and new metrics and methods. GPS improves strategic planning and execution and enables practical management of the risks a company faces in pursuit of its business goals. The framework provides a portfolio view of a company’s strategic objectives, a return on risk-adjusted capital measure, risk-intelligent decision making, and risk-adjusted performance measurement/compensation.

Description: Many financial institutions calculate economic capitals for different risks through separate processes. This paper reveals a closed‐form solution in calibrating Gumbel copula for risk aggregation. It demonstrates its several desired features and shows the detailed procedure to aggregate commercial and consumer credit risk capitals.

Description: Improving understanding of the complex relationships among financial entities is critically important for risk managers and for financial authorities charged with multiple policy objectives. High quality information is lacking at both the intra- and inter-enterprise levels and to support analysis of the financial network. Put simply, the current quality and quantity of relationship data is not sufficient to deliver on the ultimate objectives. For the purpose of this discussion we use a very generic definition of a term relationship somewhat similar to the definition used to describe human relationships. And like in the human relationships case we will not claim that only marriage and blood connection makes your relatives, but also loaning a book, loving, hating and sharing a flat. In the financial context, the relationships may be determined by accounting rules set, for example, by IFRS or US GAAP, as well as regulatory requirements in areas o f risk management, market integrity, know-your-client, network analysis and statistical consolidation. The financial industry and regulators have spent countless hours arguing and debating the definition of ownership. The problem lies in the question itself. We suggest that as part of any relationship data system the best approach is to put the question aside and avoid a conceptual and practical quagmire. Rather, we recommend collecting and storing less-subjective granular data on theactual legal and economic relationships between firms, which provides a flexibleframework from which any user can answer the question on corporate relationships he or she determines is appropriate at a given time. Encouragingly, technological solutions are available to accommodate this multiplicity of requirements in a single solution. The paper outlines where the practical challenges are that inhibit the development of high quality relationship data and how they can be overcome.

Description: The article provides an introduction to the Stock Value Approach to enterprise risk management (ERM). A clear path toward implementation of comprehensive and pragmatic ERM is shown. The framework is underpinned by a company's goals as they relate to growth of the value of the company stock price.

Description: This paper develops a conceptually rigorous, but practical, approach to estimating risk margins that are consistent with actuary's cost of capital concept.

Description: This paper proposes a new type of financial derivative named contingent liquidity swap (CLS) to address the liquidity issue. CLS is a swap agreement that the buyer of the swap pays cash in exchange for less-liquid assets in the event of a liquidity event. Those less-liquid assets may include stocks or high-yield bonds. The seller of the CLS makes a series of payments for the contingent liquidity. The payment should be lower than the equity risk premium to reduce the cost of funding but high enough to attract investors.

Description: Abstract: Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Significant differences in smoking prevalence rates by gender have contributed to differential levels and rates of improvement in mortality and are expected to continue to influence mortality improvement differently over the next several decades. This paper compares smoking prevalence and cessation by gender and their effect on smoking-attributable and, in turn, all-cause mortality. A summary of mortality attribution approaches used to evaluate the effect of smoking and projections of mortality rates by gender is also provided.

Description: Abstract: This research paper assesses the adequacy of the combination of elder care and support programs in six developed countries. The programs considered are social security (retirement income), health care and long-term care, and four family compositions are considered to make the assessment. The paper discusses the difficulties of defining adequacy. The fuzzy set methodology of Ragin (2000) is used to label the level of adequacy of the combined programs. This is the first time this methodology has been applied to this problem. The paper contributes to research in the social sciences by combining quantitative and qualitative results. It finds that the combined programs are: often inadequate in England and the United States; not adequate or inadequate in Canada; and mainly adequate in France, Germany and Sweden. Three policy recommendations, which would increase the likelihood of benefit adequacy, are made.