Description: The purpose of the present paper is to discuss some of the methods by which fertility variations can be incorporated into population forecasts. From ARCH 1984, Vol. 1.

Description: Papers: When Danes have only 15 years to live: Implications of linking retirement age with life expectancy – Jesus-Adrian Alvarez, Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, Ph.D., Søren Kjærgaard, James W. Vaupel, Ph.D. - University of Southern Denmark A Study into the Impact of Pre-Programed Genetic Health Risks in Retirement Planning – N.V. Subramanyan, Prudential Assurance Company Limited, Singapore

Description: This report examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental illness and the impact of mental illness on mortality and longevity in the U.S.

Description: This is a paper from the session on Climate Change Effects at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This is a paper from the session on the Asia at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: This article provides a perspective on the SOA’s Aging and Retirement research reports, and on the types of research that are included. The SOA does a lot of research on different retirement topics, and many people are not aware of the scope of this work. This article offers an overview of the big picture as we think about the future. The article describes longer-term challenges to the US retirement system and recent developments that have affected the system and created uncertainty. It provides an overview of what individuals have said about retirement and their view of post-retirement risks and planning in a variety of consumer research studies. It then reviews some of the research and provides information on summary reports which provide insight on the findings from multiple related research reports. It also provides information about consumer education and what is currently available and in process. It then focuses on how the SOA is helping retirement professionals understand current and expected change and discusses areas of uncertainty as we help those we serve deal with change.

Description: This is a summary of a multi-faceted research project focusing on how to help people better manage money when they no longer can. Article includes interviews with the three co-researchers. Research is focused on understanding when people need help and what actions will encourage them to make proper arrangements. Research includes focus on words and actions that lead to implementation of plans. The team is multi-disciplinary and the research included interviews with experts and individuals, focus groups, and a survey. The research was sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Aging and Retirement strategic research initiative.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.