Description: Even the best algorithms are only effective if they are trained on appropriate data. This article discusses common pitfalls in creating a training data set.

Description: The article gives a brief history of the development of the Delphi method, and describes the use of the Delphi method in studies by the Society of Actuaries over the past 25 years.

Description: Given the limits of classical actuarial modeling and forecasting techniques, this newsletter contains articles discussing several ways to supplement your toolset.

Description: Book review of: Social Science from the Bottom Up, by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell

Description: In this article, the author discusses the considerations and advantages of implementing an integrated enterprise risk management program for a health insurance company, and presents a summary of Aetna's experience with ERM as a case study.

Description: As the portion of inforce business valued under PBR grows, it becomes increasingly important to not only calculate reserves for point-in-time valuation but to also project reserves. This is especially critical for actuarial functions such as pricing, business strategy/forecasting, and asset adequacy testing. In this session, we will review PBR projection techniques based on work completed by the American Academy of Actuaries when developing the PBA Projection Practice Note. In addition, this session will examine specific challenges that can arise when actuaries use models to project reserves at future dates. Topics covered include mortality improvement, credibility, scenario generation, starting asset projections, and various other technical issues related to nested modeling requiring both inner and outer loop projections.

Description: The author explains how he used judgmental forecasting techniques to develop a dynamic lapse assumption. He defines the techniques and provides readers with a step-by-step process.

Description: The main focus of this article revolves around pension plans and their funding levels.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: This article discusses challenges that short-term predictions have on actuaries' reputations, both as individuals and as a profession, and discusses strategies to improve our professionalism and better manage this risk.