Description: Discusses the three complexity science sessions at the Annual Meeting that were sponsored by the Section.

Description: For actuarial projections to serve as the management tools that they are intended to be, the persons charged with making those projections need to consider whether the projection is sufficiently sophisticated so that it does not miss major items.It is important to consider the tax effect. This article covers several of the major tax issues that should be considered in any actuarial projection.

Description: What is a "super" model? How do we develop, maintain, and visualize them? What is the difference between models and assumptions? Most importantly, how can we use all of this to quantifiably improve risk management?

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: Introduces the concept of total risk analysis, a methodology used to answer questions like "what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million"

Description: This paper derives limited fluctuations credibility results for the Generalized Linear Model GLM and the extended case of generalized linear mixed model GLMM. It shows how credibility depends on the sample size, the distribution of covariates, and the link function. This provides a mechanism to obtain confidence intervals for the GLM and GLMM estimators.

Description: This paper examines the models underlying three of the most influential FAHP articles.

Description: David shares his thoughts on using Microsoft's High Performance Computing Server, or HPCS, to cluster computer resources, improve timely performance, and reduce actuarial modeling costs.

Description: This article lays conceptual foundations associated with projecting investment-related discretionary elements of various life insurance and annuity products. It outlines potential implementation approaches that may be appropriate when calculations are performed in a risk-neutral setting. The article concludes that crediting rates in risk-neutral models can be projected as in real-world models, except that the modeled provision for expected credit losses should be modified to equal real-world expected losses initially, but over the projection reflect management’s evolving expectation, moving ultimately to risk neutral expected losses.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.