Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: Introduction of the new Forecasting and Futurism Section – helps members stay current, and facilitates professional development by providing information about and training in forecasting and futurism methods and tools.

Description: Issue overview and editorial on how the actuary of today must embrace the Complexity Science and Advanced Analytics tools of today in order to remain viable in a world where the skills of yesterday are no longer unique to actuaries.

Description: Futurists acknowledge the power that past performance might bring to the future, but they also explicitly recognize the possibility of ‘wild cards’ which might change the picture completely.

Description: This is a gentle introduction to fuzzy logic. It explains the concept and use of linguistic variables, reference ranges, fuzzification, and defuzzification without the usual advanced mathematics that sometimes obscure these ideas.

Description: Simple Rating Systems: Entry-level sports forecasting

Description: A list of accomplishments from 2016 for the Predictive Analytics & Futurism section.

Description: Collaborative filtering models drive recommendations provided by Netflix and Amazon. This article uses the same models to explore patients’ medical conditions.

Description: Issue Introduction and editorial on how PAF tools and techniques can ease the angst of competing in the financial risk arena.