Description: A discussion of how much risk public pension plans should take on.

Description: We consider a class of compound renewal risk process with claim waiting times have a discrete Km distribution. The classical compound binomial risk model is a special case when m = 1. Both recursive and explicit formulas are derived for the expected discounted penalty function due at ruin, for the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Many ruin related quantities can be analyzed through the penalty function, e.g., ruin probability, the p.g.f. of the time of ruin, joint and marginal distributions of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, claim causing ruin, as well as their moments. Detailed discussions are given in two special cases: claim sizes are rationally distributed, or the claim sizes distribution have a finite support.

Description: This paper discusses the binominal financial and insurance models. In addition, the paper expands the discussion to the martingale probabilities measures for insurances, annuities, endowment insurances, and equity-linked products.

Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: The costly, time-consuming and complicated process of enterprise risk management (ERM) can be improved in many companies and made less tedious for managers by using reasonable data and templates obtained from peer group entities. The models used to calculate economic capital (EC) often underestimate its value because they do not consider decision-maker perception about risk. We assume here that managers, as the decision-makers, have appropriate business understanding and they can provide substantial information about risk characteristics regarding all business processes. Therefore we are focused, in this paper, on collecting data from managers across the different businesses to derive the appropriate knowledge about risky events, the importance of particular types of risk, the relationship between the risk outcomes and the level of risk control in a particular industry. We conclude that the collected data has a high potential for use as a benc hmarking reference and analysis for improving ERM models for individual businesses.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns

Description: The author summarizes the content of a seminar entitled “Integrated Approaches to Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry,” including a description of the papers presented.

Description: The article discusses C1 risks in five areas: 1 the economics of risk, 2 portfolio optimization, 3 policy, 4 risk interaction and 5 institutional aspects of C1 risk.

Description: Description of new regulatory risk disclosure for private fund advisers.