Description: Read the June 2019 issue of Health Watch, published by the Health Section. Practical information for actuaries, articles impact sections, section activities.

Description: In April 2018, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published a revised definition of primarily health related (PHR) benefits as applicable to Medicare Advantage (MA) organizations.

Description: The letter from the editor thanks all of the authors for their contributions and gives a very quick synopsis of what will be appearing in the June issue.

Description: ACA risk adjustment has now been in play for years. The original intent of risk adjustment was to help stabilize the market through measuring risk levels of each issuer. However, the risk adjustment program may have introduced additional uncertainty due to annual market shifts and model changes, making risk adjustment estimation is a difficult task. This article analyzes the results over time, including impacts from market changes and model changes.

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: Discussion of issues from The Credibility Task Force for Health Coverage. From Health Section News, June 1998, Issue No. 35.

Description: Considerations in the Development of Area Factors, Issue No. 38.

Description: Calculation of IBNR Reserves compares IBNP lag method to Incurred Claims PMPM method which produces lower Variance. Issue No. 46.

Description: This article summarizes what is new with the Academy health practice council. Issue No. 59

Description: In preparing claims reserves in the annual statement, health insurers and their opining actuaries will generally include a provision for adverse deviation (PAD) in their reserved amount in order to satisfy language in both in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Health Annual Statement Instructions and in Actuarial Standards of Practice. This article explores the total level of PAD (both implicit and explicit margin combined) included in the reported claims reserves by examining NAIC filing data from 2016 through 2022.