Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: Watch as presenters highlight the SOA's work on an updated Medicaid underwriting margin model. This research project includes the model along with a set of instructions and a paper describing the key components of underwriting margin, including cost of capital and risk margin. The model was created as a tool for Medicaid actuaries representing both MCO and state principals to determine appropriate underwriting margin components within Medicaid managed care rates. In addition, explore a brief description of the motivation for an underlying theory behind the model. Walk through different model inputs and run through some realistic scenarios that Medicaid actuaries may encounter in states where they operate.

Description: Virtual - Session 8D: An Application of Clustering Approaches in Value-Based Care

Description: A multi-author collection exploring how catastrophe modeling can be adapted to life and health insurance, particularly in response to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.

Description: Can you answer the question, 'What are the chances we will lose more than $1 million?' without saying, 'It depends'? If you miss a projection, can you estimate the chances that the miss was due to random variation versus an incorrect projection? Listen in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis and to apply to many health actuarial functions.

Description: Join in and learn to describe the changes in provider contracting that are emerging in the post-COVID marketplace. Examples include: - Carrier transparency files - Increase sophistication of provider negotiators - Additional sources of data - Market issues increasing urgency - Demanding new contracting models

Description: Tree models have been found to provide a good fit to group long term disability recovery and mortality rates. This research paper provides an overview of tree models, and details how they have been used for developing these rates.

Description: Guidance and a model for actuaries to use when performing their professional services related to Medicaid (Title XIX) and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP or Title XXI) managed care capitation rate setting.

Description: Much of the work performed by disability insurance actuaries depends on the availability of accurate and detailed data, which is not always as simple as it sounds. Explore a variety of data challenges faced by disability actuaries, along with potential solutions. Potential topics include finding relevant data, the impact of poor data on valuation work, the impact of new privacy rules, and the potential bias in the data used to develop predictive models.