Description: Important tools used in property & casualty P&C insurance—predictive modeling and data mining—can be applied to more effectively model policyholder behavior risks in variable annuity VA contracts. In this article, a case study is used to demonstrate how a predictive modeling approach can improve upon traditional methods used to model VA lapse behavior.

Description: This paper analyzes which of the factors that affect retirement mortality determined in Phase I of the FARM project should be added to the existing mortality studies of the Society of Actuaries. Some factors were added or modified and two were dropped from those in Phase I.

Description: This article is an update, as of March 2019, on Financial Reporting Section sponsored projects in process and those recently completed.

Description: This article summarizes the key changes to VM-31 requirements in the 2020 version of the Valuation Manual for both life and variable annuities, and compares and contrasts the requirements for each. In addition, the article offers insights into common issues and recommendations for VM-31 reports from the viewpoints of a regulator, consultant, and company actuary.

Description: Can the aggregate results from a group be used to forecast something as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative filtering which is discussed at length in this article.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: The author discusses the two-part presentation on complexity science tools at the SOA Annual Meeting October 2010. He explains that presentations went back to basics with explanations about the difference between modeling tools used to employ deterministic methods for classical actuarial models.

Description: Discussion of issues from The Credibility Task Force for Health Coverage. From Health Section News, June 1998, Issue No. 35.

Description: sources of Health Care data Issue No. 37.

Description: Considerations in the Development of Area Factors, Issue No. 38.