Description: Actuarial weather extremes, February, 2021

Description: Supporting Excel file for Getzen Model 2022.

Description: This study and report have the following primary purposes: 1. Evaluate recent mortality experience relative to standard industry mortality tables, at a broad level. 2. Observe general trends in mortality experience by key policy characteristics. Where possible, provide insights into the industry changes contributing to the observed trends. 3. Provide the underlying data in spreadsheet pivot table format for further investigation by qualified actuaries. Provide data also in a delimited text file and Tableau dashboards for use with other software tools.

Description: Machine learning algorithms fit models based on patterns identified in data and can be very complex. In this report, we describe and illustrate a range of methods for interpreting machine learning models from the growing field of Interpretable Machine Learning (IML).

Description: This primer paper seeks to introduce and update the actuarial profession to the topic of insurance policies and genetics and study the impacts on insurance and potential responses.

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: Sam Gutterman's winning essay.

Description: This report is an update of the U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Preview of 2020 Experience released in May 2021. This update is based on 2020 provisional death data released by the CDC.

Description: Actuarial weather extremes, January, 2021

Description: Actuarial Weather Extremes: November 2021 Extreme Precipitation, Drought, and Late Season Tornadoes This report examines weather conditions for precipitation, drought conditions, and late season tornadoes that are extreme in an historical context. Extreme Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest: Many Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) stations in Northwest Washington state and Southwest British Columbia had record November daily precipitation amounts on November 14 and 15, 2021 when looking back to 1960. During and after those dates, many U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage stations in Washington had readouts that were from Flood Stage to Major Flood Stage. Drought Conditions increase in Continental U.S. as Drought Moves East: Severe drought conditions in the Western U.S. dissipated somewhat, but in the Continental U.S. as a whole, the footprint where drought conditions exist has increased overall, and is driven primarily by increased drought in South-central and Middle Atlantic states. Late Season Tornado Activity: Comparing the historical database of tornado activity and the recent activity in the state of New York, of 24 November tornadoes reported in New York since 1950, nine occurred on November 13, 2021. These late season tornadoes are rare in New York, and November 2021 was exceptionally active for these storms.