Description: Quantitative operational risk assessment is essentially based on stochastic scenario modeling of operational loss sequences. Given the lack of reliable historical data in most cases, mathematical methods should meet even stronger requirements in terms of results received and include specific features, namely: rare event analysis, uncertainty analysis and human factor analysis, etc. In this paper, the analytical-statistical simulation approach ASSA is considered as the most flexible approach to stochastic scenario loss sequence modeling and compared with Markov chain, fault/event tree and Monte Carlo, in terms of scenario loss sequence model adequacy and calculation cost. Probabilistic risk analysis software PRAISE and some applications are given. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: 2011 ERM Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper uses a case-study research design looking at two companies: Infosys and Rolls-Royce Corp. The goal of the research is to develop an explanation of how ERM brings about the strategic implications or its “promise” as it is popularly known in the ERM circle. The influential factors and how they are linked to the ERM process of achieving strategic implications are highlighted.

Description: This monograph was presented at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, held March 14-16 in Chicago. The author, writing from a property-liability insurance perspective, notes that capital allocation is a theoretical exercise because all of a firm’s capital could be depleted to cover a significant loss arising from any one segment. However, firms do need to allocate capital for pricing, risk management and performance evaluation. In this paper, the cost of capital in financial markets is incorporated into the Ruhm-Mango-Kreps algorithm to yield one allocation that reflects the true cost of capital an insurer would face.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium. Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the referenced paper.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. The Community Living Assistance Services and Supports 'CLASS' Act’s designers and promoters envision the program as a noble plan to relieve the financial strain on Medicaid long-term care and enable disabled and elderly Americans to purchase more home care and suffer less nursing home institutionalization. This paper explains why CLASS, like private long-term care insurance, is doomed to failure unless and until the crowd-out effect of easy access to Medicaid LTC benefits is addressed.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This research studies coherent mortality modeling by combining a group of populations with similar period effects - e.g., mortality behaviors - in an effort to improve the stability of mortality modeling for older ages.