Description: Important tools used in property & casualty P&C insurance—predictive modeling and data mining—can be applied to more effectively model policyholder behavior risks in variable annuity VA contracts. In this article, a case study is used to demonstrate how a predictive modeling approach can improve upon traditional methods used to model VA lapse behavior.

Description: This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2021 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2020.

Description: In this session, attendees will understand the role of AI in risk management and underwriting. You will see insightful case studies highlighting AI-driven techniques for enhancing precision and efficiency in these areas. Additionally, the session will cover advanced AI applications in claim management and fraud detection, showcasing cutting-edge strategies to mitigate risks and streamline operations.

Description: Actuaries today have unique opportunities to analyze, understand and use data for strategic decision making. With nearly unlimited computing power and a broad spectrum of data sources at our fingertips, we are enabled to support our actuarial judgment with comprehensive findings backed up by deep data analyses.

Description: The article explores a closed-form forecasting method that combines Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), weighted linear regression, and ridge regression (L2 regularization). The approach addresses two key challenges in time-series forecasting: adapting to nonstationarity and mitigating overfitting due to multicollinearity. EWMA assigns more weight to recent observations, while ridge regression penalizes large coefficients to stabilize estimates. A cross-validation strategy across rolling time windows selects optimal hyperparameters: the EWMA decay factor (α) and the ridge penalty (λ). The method is tested using repeated regressions of stock returns, showing that most hyperparameter combinations outperform ordinary least squares (OLS) under the (λ=1, α=0) setting.

Description: The use of data to assess risk is not new to the life insurance industry, but has historically been limited to leveraging structured data. Join us as we discuss the next frontier: unstructured data.

Description: Predictive models can improve the traditional actuarial assumption-setting process. Data science techniques can provide deeper insights into experience through their ability to identify key drivers, rank importance and account for interactions. The presenters will cover ways in which companies can utilize predictive analytics to set assumptions, including the various methods available and practical approaches for implementation. They will also discuss the advantages and challenges of using predictive models for setting assumptions for life, annuity and disability products.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.

Description: Read the April 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section of the Society of Actuaries.

Description: This e-course will introduce you to a set of advanced business analytic techniques. We define advanced business analytics as a set of tools and techniques to assist in key business decisions.