Description: Can you answer the question, 'What are the chances we will lose more than $1 million?' without saying, 'It depends'? If you miss a projection, can you estimate the chances that the miss was due to random variation versus an incorrect projection? Listen in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis and to apply to many health actuarial functions.

Description: This session will discuss two important dimensions of why a holistic approach is recommended over a piecemeal, nonintegrated approach for an IFRS 17 modeling solution. Attendees will receive three perspectives from actuaries working as actuarial consultants or within an insurance company or as a software developer. The first dimension is model design. The session will demonstrate holistic model design advantages with regards to model inputs, model outputs, liability portfolio management, modeling efficiency, and transparency. The second dimension represents organizational impacts resulting from the model design.

Description: Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) #12 on Risk Classification is being revised while the Academy of Actuaries Issue Brief on Discrimination, published in August 2023, is shaping how bias and discrimination are thought through as actuaries. Individual states like Colorado and New York are suggesting approaches, and the Society of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society and other actuarial associations are providing the actuaries the tools to address practical cases.

Description: The NAIC is in the middle of their GOES (generator of economic scenarios) project to change the real-world economic scenario generator (ESG) prescribed for principle-based reserve and capital calculations.

Description: "A crucial importance in forecasting is to be able to distinguish cases when temporary slowdowns in health care utilization are followed by a “rebound” period of higher utilization. Come explore an analysis of a new mathematical model describing the return-of-care process. By means of simulation and case studies using the R programming language, the relationship between the visibility of these effects and the endogenous variance of the utilization time series is explored. After attending this session, you will be able to: Describe the parameters and mathematical form of the model Apply the model to real-world utilization data"

Description: Asset liability management is an important task for any insurer, where tools like Excel play an important role from an analytics perspective. Dashboard tools like Power Bi and Tableau can supercharge an organization’s ability to perform ALM with real-time precision and monitoring of risk/imbalances. The dashboard can provide insights into potential risks posed by asset allocation and concentration, allowing for informed decision-making to mitigate those risks. The presenters will walk the audience through an example of ALM use case, including how to build key performance indicators such as cash flow, asset allocation, and risk exposure. Additionally, we will demonstrate how these types of dashboards can be customized to fit the specific needs of your organization.

Description: This session will discuss essential theories and practical applications of deep learning for actuaries. Participants will gain insights on leveraging these cutting-edge techniques to enhance actuarial models and drive predictive accuracy.

Description: It goes without saying that the analysis of data is a key aspect of actuarial practice, but do traditional actuarial approaches allow us to see the whole picture? Effective data analysis is also key to the identification of health disparities and measuring progress on health equity. Actuaries and others analyzing data for health equity purposes find themselves looking at data differently.

Description: Artificial intelligence (AI) models have become increasingly popular in various industries, including finance. Such models can help lenders assess the risk of loan applicants, identify potential defaults and make better decisions about granting credit. However, the complexity of many machine-learning and, particularly, deep-learning models makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions. This lack of interpretability can be a significant problem in the legal and ethical realms, as it hinders transparency and accountability. Join us to learn interpretability techniques that are essential to address the challenges of using complex AI models in credit risk modeling. These techniques aim to provide a better understanding of how an AI model arrived at a particular decision or prediction. Techniques include surrogate models, which aim to provide a simpler model that approximates the behavior of the original model, and decision trees, which show the decision-making process in a more transparent way. However, applying interpretability techniques to AI models can be a challenging task. For example, some techniques can reduce the performance of the model, which can be unacceptable in applications where high accuracy is critical. Additionally, some techniques may only be effective for certain types of models or datasets, which limits their applicability. Despite these challenges, interpretability techniques are becoming increasingly important in the field of credit risk modeling. Financial regulators have recognized the importance of interpretability, and are starting to require financial institutions to use models that can be explained and validated. In addition, interpretability techniques can be used to improve the performance of credit risk models. By understanding how a model makes decisions, it is possible to identify areas where the model can be improved or where additional data may be needed.

Description: This session includes a new idea based on dynamic treatment regime work (OWL) and integrating cost into this work. This will enable identifying the best treatment for a patient based on both outcomes and cost. This is novel for actuaries because in previous analysis we have used cost only in the after-analysis, whereas here we use it in the actual analysis and treatment identification. Moreover, this analysis provides a way to consider multiple treatments for a patient (including the no treatment option) and choosing among those multiple treatments, for both outcomes and cost. This session will share the background theory and set up a case study. The case study will parallel what is in the analysis in the book by Ian Duncan 'Predicting Hospital Readmission with Case Management Recommendation.' This analysis will then go further to compare a situation where there are multiple potential case managers. Also, this will potentially explore care pathways and choosing the best care pathway for a patient based on health outcomes and cost combined.