Description: This article introduces unsupervised methods: modeling methods that do not depend on picking an independent variable and dependent variable. Such methods are used, among other things, for determining how entities are clustered.

Description: Predictably Irrational, by Dan Ariely, is considered a seminal work in behavioral science. This book review gives a chapter by chapter synopsis of the book.

Description: The first annual SOA Predictive Analytics Symposium was held in Chicago and exceeded all expectations in attendance, presentation quality, and relevant content.

Description: A discussion on podcasts relative to the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section and how they can generate CE credits.

Description: Summary of the first annual predictive analytics (PA) symposium specifically targeted to help actuaries get into PA & to take it to the next level of expertise.

Description: Description of SOA's initiative in predictive analytics

Description: Neural networks have fallen only to rise again twice. The latest incarnation borrows much from the past but adds elements to support deep learning. This article demonstrates the state of the art in deep neural network programming.

Description: Book review – this book is a concise look at the evolution of formal investment theory and related financial forecasting, with continual contextual references to its ties to gambling and to organized crime.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?