Description: The article is devoted to risk management in the business process of materials supply for industrial enterprises. The goals of the business process are considered, and the risks of the failure to achieve goals are identified. Probabilities and influence of negative events are estimated. The risk treatment is considered on critical risks, including forming of insurance supplies of materials. The calculations of insurance supplies of materials, taking into account risks, are conducted on the basis of statistical information.

Description: Abstract for the 2008 ERM Monograph paper, “Integrated Enterprise Risk Management for Industrial Companies: A Critical Discussion of How to Improve Risk Evaluations”

Description: Abstract for the 2008 ERM Monograph paper, “Effects of Integrated Risk Management on Mean and Variance of Cost Efficiency of Property/Liability Insurance Industry”

Description: Discussion on Living to 100 General Session 2.

Description: This paper reviews available evidence about the compression of morbidity and the disability decline and discusses the context in which they occur: initial level of disability, initial value of life expectancy and trend in life expectancy.

Description: This paper addresses some of the issues arising from the combination of lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy, which have become more pronounced over the past 40 years in Canada and many other countries, too. The paper examines the effect of a gradual increase in retirement ages in order to attempt to maintain the “senior dependency ratio” at or close to its current level.

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: A multiway typology of measures of aging, longevity and superlongevity is presented, with measures classified as measures of aging and longevity, direct and indirect measures of aging and longevity, and measures based on population data, death statistics and life table functions.