Description: Modeling Approaches and Challenges focuses on approaches to real world simulation and the challenges and considerations in real world simulation. Topics include: A frequency domain approach to build realistic multi-horizon scenarios. (Ortec approach) Cascade models structure linking models for major asset classes and economic variables. (Moody’s approach) Overview of models, calibrations & approaches within the context of different use cases. Deterministic & stochastic approaches. Importance of model re-calibration flexibility. We will also discuss specific insights into considerations and challenges in real world simulation, which include topics like: Setting capital market assumptions and/or calibration targets. Assumptions about correlation and causality. Calibrating the model to capital markets assumptions. Validating the model against capital market assumptions. Role of history, market data and stylized facts. Importance of back testing. Calibrating the model to multiple investment horizons. Inclusion of alterative asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, and direct real estate. Associated issues of limited data, illiquidity and greater uncertainty about calibration targets.

Description: Emerging Applications of ESG Methods offers ground-up insights on cutting edge applications of economic scenario generation. The course will focus on the incorporation of climate change risk in scenario modeling and investment applications of ESGs. The following topics will be covered: Approaches to climate risk modeling. Climate risk is very different than classical financial economic risk. Radical uncertainty is amenable to scenario analysis and lack of data. Building special deterministic scenarios that go beyond NGFS requirements as well as bespoke scenarios. Holistic Approach to Climate Risk Modeling. Overview of different Climate Risk Modeling Applications. Use of ESG scenarios for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). Liquidity risk management.

Description: Under long-duration targeted improvements (LDTI), there are a few insurance liability balances that now are required to be fair valued, market risk benefit (MRB). The session will start from all the applicable balances that are required to be fair valued under LDTI ((i.e., MRB, financial accounting statement (FAS) 133, value of business acquired (VOBA) upon business combination)). The session will use a case study to discuss some of the nuances and general considerations for an MRB, FAS 133 and VOBA balances for a business combination for an fixed indexed annuity (FIA) contract. The case study will discuss some MRB fair value considerations and followed by FAS 133 fair value techniques. It will go over VOBA fair value estimation by using actuarial appraisal method with a few twists (e.g., using market yield in generating distributable earnings is better than using book yield and adjusted to bring it to fair value later on).

Description: You will be reminded how to spot and avoid statistical biases and fallacies that are common to health care actuarial data and problems. We plan to explain various statistical biases and fallacies and for each show one or two examples of how they might pop up in healthcare data and what strategies can be used to avoid/account for them. Likely topics include simpson's paradox, regression to the mean, base rate fallacy, sampling bias, survivor bias, Berkson's fallacy, and others.

Description: Come gain insights into the techniques used in Machine Learning and its applications. You'll discover the key technological advances in recent years which were behind and ultimately facilitated the breakthroughs including ChatGPT/GenAI. It's time to uncover real-world use cases where AI models and their transformative impact on our lives.

Description: One common barrier to employing GLM modeling is the lack of sufficient data. This limitation often comes from the combination of the considerations in ASOP No. 25 “Credibility Procedures” and the fact that GLMs assign full credibility to the data. Explore the possibilities of credibility-based regression by expanding the intended purpose of modeling analysis from producing a single model as output to producing data insights, credible differences, and a range of reasonable models.

Description: CMS has required hospitals to publish their chargemaster rates, cash discounts and negotiated rates as of January 1, 2021. Our panel is comprised of a data strategist, an executive from a large hospital system and an actuary.

Description: Following recent market volatility and regulatory changes, market data and market-consistent economic scenarios are at the core of the valuation of liabilities and market risk benefits under regimes such as IFRS 17 and Long Duration Targeted Improvements. This webcast will explore options available to insurance companies to establish stable long-term volatility assumptions and discuss how the choice of financial data can impact the calibration and the simulation of credit spread scenarios.

Description: Have you ever struggled to make business decisions because your internal mortality studies lack credibility? Have you ever launched a new product or initiative and wanted to understand mortality risk before claims experience emerged? This session will discuss how predictive models can help actuaries enhance their traditional mortality studies with leading mortality leading indicators to be more nimble to market demands.

Description: Explore a brief overview of federal income taxation of health insurers and selected technical tax topics during this panel discussion webcast. You'll dive into the evolution of heath insurers and healthcare-related services and the arising questions regarding their risk-bearing activities, as well as whether or not certain types of healthcare businesses qualify as "insurance companies" for federal income tax purposes. Also, expect to learn about loss reserves for guaranteed renewable contracts and how they can affect insurance company tax status. This webcast will continue to highlight how the IRS challenges loss reserves of health insurers as the panelists review the status of tax cases, IRS guidance and recent IRS activity regarding "margins."