Description: The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade.

Description: In this article, the author examines how a seemingly impossible event becomes a harsh or startling reality.

Description: Statistics were invented to describe heterogeneity and are now applied to tackle alea. It may not be appropriate. Let's clarify their field of relevance.

Description: This is the second article in a two-part series examining the potential value to companies of implementing a company profitability and risk dashboard.

Description: Response to David Kausch’s comments on the paper.

Description: ALM keeps adapting. From duration-matching before 2008, to stress testing in the prolonged low-rate 2010s, to disintermediation risks in the sharp 2021–2023 rate hikes, each shock has reshaped the playbook. In my new paper, I argue for a practical way forward: matching the first 5–7 years of asset and liability cash flows and holding liquidity buffers, a balance between rigid full matching and simple duration management.

Description: Strategic Risk Management was given lower priority in a recent survey of ERM Objectives. This article tells how the author believes that recent events have caused many to shift to a more short term focus and in the future there will be a shift back to a priority for the longer term view that stands behind Strategic Risk Management when the environment settles down and things again seem to be more predictable.

Description: This research report that provides a literature survey of methodologies applying machine learning to insurance claim modeling.

Description: This article sees enterprise risk management as a specific application of knowledge in Order to control deviations from strategic objectives, shareholders’ values and stakeholders’ relationships. Before and after a modeling process it is necessary to find insights into how the application of knowledge management processes can improve the understanding of risk and the implementation of enterprise risk management. The article presents a proposed methodology to contribute to providing a guide for developing risk modeling knowledge and a reduction of knowledge silos, in order to improve the quality and quantity of solutions related to risk inquiries across the organization.

Description: ERM has methodology for quantifying the risk to capital, but to determine optimal capital, the impact of capital level on firm value is needed. This gets into the realm of valuation. Also capital allocation provides risk quantification for business units, but comparing return among units is fundamentally a risk-pricing exercise. When considering risk pricing, optimal returns on allocated capital are not necessarily constant across business units. The current ERM methodology, as well as actuarial literature on valuation and pricing, are reviewed, and possible directions for application of pricing and valuation methods to risk management problems are outlined.