Description: Longevity risk—the risk of outliving one’s retirement savings—is probably the greatest risk facing current and future retirees in the United States. As life expectancy increases, government programs, private pensions and various financial products will all be needed to provide retirement income over ever-longer periods of retirement. This article focuses on the optimal mix of social insurance, pensions and financial products that should be used to provide retirement income to the oldest old, here defined as those 90 and older. To be sure, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are already designed to provide modest, inflation-adjusted retirement benefits to all retirees. On the other hand, pensions and other forms of retirement savings are often dissipated long before people reach the esteemed status of oldest old. One approach for enhancing the retirement incomes of the oldest old would be to expand Social Se curity and SSI. Another approach would be to strengthen the protections provided by pensions and other forms of retirement savings. In particular, the private sector could be encouraged to sell more annuities and other lifetime income products, and, perhaps, the government should also get into the business of selling annuities. These are the kinds of solutions needed to ensure the oldest old face their final years with adequate economic resources.

Description: A Study of Measuring the Mortality Compression

Description: Abstract for Survival Characteristics of Three Senior Populations, with a Focus on Life Settlements

Description: Is Secondary Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease Possible? A Discussion of Studies in the Alzheimer’s Disease Field

Description: The paper o ers a simple framework for ranking the common reinsurance struc- tures in practice with the theory of stochastic orders. The basic idea is to slice the space of reinsurance structures into groups by expected loss cost to facilitate the comparisons within the group and between groups. Given the standard risk aversion assumption in economics, a spectrum of reinsurance structures with the same expected loss cost can be compared analytically with one another and sequenced based on their risk coverages under the convex order. The paper then expands the dimension of the comparison to groups of reinsurance structures with di erent expected loss costs, which can be ranked under the increasing convex order and the usual stochastic order. As such, the paper maps out the ordering for the entire space of reinsurance structures and presents it in a ma- trix format for quick reference. The implication of this stochastic ordering to reinsurance pricing is also investigated.

Description: Adaptive Risk Management harnesses social intelligence to identify emerging risks. We have entered an age of disruption where exponential technologies are transforming every industry. The ability to pivot in a rapidly evolving ecosystem is essential. Centralized “predict and control” paradigms will increasingly fail as complex interactions drive phase transitions. Successful organizations will harness social intelligence to “sense and respond” to giant waves of change. Maps amplify intelligence to help us navigate challenging terrain. Maps play a central role in all command centres, enabling rapid risk identification with a shared visual language. Interactive financial network maps allow analysts to explore and diagnose systemic fragilities, and mitigate critical vulnerabilities. Dynamic financial maps can also build visual intuition to detect escalating risk patterns. After observing early warning signals, analysts can apply network analytics to estimate likely second order effects. This allows organizations to proactively manage emerging risk before tipping points are crossed.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: Many risk management decisions involve the timing of implementing risk strategies. The cost of hedging, capital raising and securitization changes with the economic environment. The timing of de-risking and investment in new risk management functions affect the cost and benefit of these projects as well. Like investment timing, it is important to consider the timing in risk management decisions to maximize the gain of risk management projects. This paper discusses methods of determining the appropriate timing of implementing a risk management strategy or investing in risk management projects. It explains the human biases that may lead to inferior timing decisions. It also covers the costs and benefits of risk management projects and the impact of new information on the decision-making process. Timing considerations for financial risk hedging, insurance risk hedging and investment in new risk management projects are explained. Factors used for timing decisions include economic conditions, market volatility, credit rating, borrowing cost, capital adequacy and financial resources.