Description: A primer for pension actuaries and others to learn what financial economics says about how pension plans are designed, invested, accounted for and funded. This guide focused on private single employer plans with widely held stock.

Description: Bond Market Watch January 2016

Description: Bond Market Watch March 2016

Description: Due to the decline in interest rates in 1993, the SEC staff began focusing on the discount rates being used for pension and postretirement benefit accounting under FASB Statement of Financial Accounting Standards FAS 87, 'Employers' Accounting for Pensions,' and FAS 106, 'Employers' Accounting for Postretirement Benefits Other Than Pensions.' Employers will need to assess their discount rates and, for some, reduce those rates significantly. To help plan sponsors comply with the SEC guidelines, Salomon Brothers has developed a Pension Discount Curve and a Pension Liability Index. This report reviews the construction of these two measures, as of December 1994.

Description: This paper discusses the binominal financial and insurance models. In addition, the paper expands the discussion to the martingale probabilities measures for insurances, annuities, endowment insurances, and equity-linked products.

Description: The purpose of this article is to revise the fuzzy regression portions of earlier studies and to discuss issues related to the Tanaka approach, including a consideration of fuzzy least-squares regression models. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.

Description: The estimation of adequate reserves for outstanding claims is one of the main activities of actuaries in property/casualty insurance. The need to estimate future claims has led to the development of many loss reserving techniques. This paper is about the situation that occurs in claims reserving when there are negative values in the development triangle of incremental claim amounts. Typically, these negative values will be the result of salvage recoveries, payments from third parties, total or partial cancellation of outstanding claims due to initial overestimation of the loss or to possible favorable jury decision in favor of the insurer, rejection by the insurer, or just plain errors. Some of the traditional methods of claims reserving, such as the chain-ladder technique, may produce estimates of the reserves even when there are negative values. However, many methods can break down in the presence of enough [in number and/or size] negative incremental claims if certain constraints are not met. Historically the chain-ladder method has been used as a gold standard [benchmark], due to its generalized use and ease of application. A method that improves on the gold standard is one that can handle situations where there are many negative incremental claims and/or some of these are large. This paper presents a Bayesian model to consider negative incremental values, based on a three parameter log-normal distribution. The model presented here allows the actuary to provide point estimates and measures of dispersion, as well as the complete distribution for outstanding claims from which the reserves can be derived. The model applies Markov Chain Monte Carlo [MCMC] using the package WinBUGS.

Description: A frustrating aspect of pension funding rules for U.S. plan sponsors is that contribution requirements are adversely correlated with business cycles. For example, not only did plan sponsors get hit with large contribution requirements in the perfect storm of the early 2000s, but many sponsors were prohibited from contributing in the late 1990s boom due to full funding limitations. This paper proposes that plan sponsors be allowed to contribute the normal cost as a deductible contribution each year. In hindsight, this would have allowed plan sponsors to pay for benefits as they accrued in the late 1990s and ultimately mitigated some of the crash of the early 2000s. The authors aim to demonstrate that a contribution policy allowing contributions to be at least equal to the normal cost will result in less volatility of contributions and improve the funded status over time.

Description: Sometimes, rare things happen and the least expected occurs. Indeed, some events occur once or twice in a lifetime leaving little room to learn from experiences. In financial markets, extreme events, no matter how rare, could have a profound impact on a company or even the whole country. Insurers are also not free from the impact of catastrophic large-scale extreme events. As a result, with pervasive economic and financial revolutions sweeping our world and potential devastative catastrophes, the increasing interest in tail risk management is fuelled by practical issues, including investment downside risk and insurance catastrophe risk. Thus, developing statistical techniques to model extreme investment and insurance losses is certainly a major task for risk managers. the purpose of our paper is to apply moment methods to estimate the joint events such as concurrent extreme investment loss and insurance loss. A novel aspect of this article is that it takes into account the correlation between different assets and insurance lines of business.

Description: Using data from the Health & Retirement Study [HRS], a two-part medical claim prediction model is estimated for a cohort of survey respondents approaching Medicare-eligibility age. A High Deductible Health Plan [HDHP] with a companion Health Savings Account [HSA] is applied to simulated claims streams to model the build-up of HSA assets over the near-retirement years. Results show that the HSA is a grossly inadequate savings vehicle to provide for retiree medical care expenses at age 65. Moreover, HSA adequacy worsens exponentially with diminishing health status. Based on this simulation, it is apparent that Baby Boomers cannot adequately provide for the costs of medical care in retirement using HSAs exclusively.