Description: This is the abstract for the research on prediction uncertainty in the Borhhuetter-Ferguson reserving method.

Description: The prediction of adequate claims reserves is a major subject in actuarial practice and science. Due to their simplicity, the chain ladder [CL] and Bornhuetter-Ferguson [BF] methods are the most commonly used claims reserving methods in practice. This presentation develops an estimator for the conditional mean square error of prediction [MSEP] of the ultimate claim in the BF method. This will be done in the framework of generalized linear models [GLM] using the overdispersed Poisson model motivation for the use of CL factor estimates in the estimation of the claims development pattern.