Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: As actuaries in health care, we spend most of our time focused on reviewing claims, enrollment and clinical data. That information is captured while patients are in health care facilities. Yet most people spend only a small fraction of their time in these facilities. This article explores what types of data are available to actuaries the provide a more holistic view of the member so that a members physical and emotional needs, the social determinants of health can be taken into consideration along with their clinical needs. Two uses cases are presented so actuaries can see how these types of analyses can be leveraged to improve clinical, operational, and financial performance of risk bearing health entities. Understanding the customer (member) not just the patient enables actuaries to provide new insights and values to our stakeholders across a wide range of business and risk applications.

Description: State Medicaid agencies have been implementing value-based payment (VBP) models for the last decade and are increasingly exploring advanced population-based payment (PBP) models that increase flexibility, predictability, and accountability for participating provider organizations. PBP models show promise in advancing Medicaid priorities, but are still in the early stages of development, and model design and implementation challenges remain. This article from the Center for Health Care Strategies explores the fundamentals of VBP and how PBP - a particular type of payment model - can help Medicaid agencies achieve goals related to care transformation and quality improvement, revenue stability, and controlling cost of care.