Description: Asset cash flow modeling and asset assumptions are growing in importance with PBR especially considering the low interest rate environment. The Academy’s Life Practice Council and Life Valuation Committee have formed a Low Interest Rate Asset Adequacy Testing Task Force which has conducted an industry survey to raise awareness and summarize the actuarial best practices for financial reporting actuaries practicing in today’s very low interest rate environment. As the scrutiny on the asset side ratchets up, actuaries must consider how best to develop the asset assumptions as well as model the reinvestment and disinvestment strategies. Coherent assumptions and modeling practices across modeling exercises are expected while respecting the purpose of each calculation.

Description: We consider Libor market model and calibration process. We estimate some interest rate derivatives such as Caps and Swaptions. We use Monte Carlo methods with appropriate dynamics under spot measure and forward measure. Imposing martingale discretization property, the same quantities are estimated again to see a contrast or discrepancy in light of confidence interval. Based on algorithms discussed in the paper, “Arbitrage-free discretizations of lognormal forward Libor and swap rate models” by Glasserman, P and Zhao, X 2000, the algorithms are implemented in excel VBA. Starting with current market data such as FRAs and Bond Prices, we describe steps involved to estimate the price of interest rate derivatives such as Caps and Swaptions, which would be beneficial to the practitioners in the industry.

Description: As the Valuation Manual continues to evolve and PBR standards for additional products are drafted and incorporated, it will become increasingly important for companies to understand where the requirements are consistent across products, as well as how they differ. This session will scan the life (VM-20) and annuity (VM-21, VM-22) PBR standards across the Valuation Manual to compare and contrast key requirements. Attendees will understand where common methods and techniques can be used across products and platforms. Attendees will also be better positioned to consider assumption and margin setting, asset and derivative modeling, and model efficiency techniques for all types of principles-based valuations. Additionally, this session will profile specific challenges that can arise when actuaries use models to project PBR reserves at future dates for internal planning, pricing, and projections across life and annuity businesses.

Description: This presentation estimates several models of interest rates, including seven without and four with regime shifts.

Description: Presentation at the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, QC. This paper considers the problem of extending regime-switching models for asset returns to the situation with multiple asset markets. The conditional tail expectation CTE is highly sensitive to the assumed dependence structure between the regime models for the different markets. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the cost of misspecification. The authors find that the model most commonly used by practitioners is worse than all of the alternatives that they investigate.

Description: In reaction to a spate of model conversion activity and rising acceptance of model risk management techniques, many companies have, or are in the process of centralizing their modeling function to accommodate both governance and efficiency demands. These operating model changes have produced a wide range of questions and issues, such as division of labor, roles and responsibilities, selection of tasks to keep decentralized, among others. This session will frame a series of key considerations around modeling function consideration, and share lessons learned with the audience.