Description: Adaptive Risk Management harnesses social intelligence to identify emerging risks. We have entered an age of disruption where exponential technologies are transforming every industry. The ability to pivot in a rapidly evolving ecosystem is essential. Centralized “predict and control” paradigms will increasingly fail as complex interactions drive phase transitions. Successful organizations will harness social intelligence to “sense and respond” to giant waves of change. Maps amplify intelligence to help us navigate challenging terrain. Maps play a central role in all command centres, enabling rapid risk identification with a shared visual language. Interactive financial network maps allow analysts to explore and diagnose systemic fragilities, and mitigate critical vulnerabilities. Dynamic financial maps can also build visual intuition to detect escalating risk patterns. After observing early warning signals, analysts can apply network analytics to estimate likely second order effects. This allows organizations to proactively manage emerging risk before tipping points are crossed.

Description: The essay discusses the appropriate role of insurance companies, efficient and economical ways to care for chronic illnesses and having a maximum price society will pay to support the ongoing life of any one individual.

Description: This paper presents the findings of a study which examines four age groups of retirees and how well they are meeting their financial needs and how much an effect real estate can have on meeting retirement expenses.

Description: This paper examines the effects that the recent housing bubble had on the household financial behavior of different birth cohorts and the consequences of those behavioral choices for boomers’ projected retirement security.

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, Housing Wealth Effects, Boomer Refinancing, Housing Debt, and Retirement Saving Adequacy-1989-2007. This paper examines the effects that the recent housing bubble had on the household financial behavior of different birth cohorts and the consequences of those behavioral choices for boomers’ projected retirement security. The authors' presentation is very much fact based... and leave it to others who may want to speculate on the implications of the findings.

Description: This paper asks the Modligliani-Miller question regarding the mortgage markets. The paper is essentially about the genesis of the credit crisis. The proposed answer is that the practice of risk should not be allowed without actuarial supervision.

Description: Abstract for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “Modigliani, Miller and Mortgages.” This paper is essentially about the genesis of the credit crisis. The proposed answer is that the practice of risk should not be allowed without actuarial supervision.

Description: The author attempts to weave together biological and environmental explanations into the mathematical approaches developed over the past two centuries so as to, in the words of two earlier authors from the actuarial profession, reground the relationship of actuarial science with cellular biology and gerontology. Also examined is the extent to which increasing wealth and higher standards of education and health contribute to happiness.

Description: Economic capital models are getting increasingly complex. An alternate copula free approach is presented which uses accounting data and an implicit correlation model to simplify economic capital calculations. Model simplification leads to robust and stable models. A banking case study is used to showcase how the model can be deployed using publicly available accounting data, capital adequacy, leverage ratios and shortfall tools.

Description: The Effect of Medical Technology on Health Care Cost, the Effect of Health Care on Longevity and Vice Versa.