Description: This paper presents an analysis of mortality in a sample of 441adults aged 55 to 85 at baseline, who were observed for eight years. The study was initiated for the purpose of analyzing age-related changes in a variety of physical variables and their impact on functional independence. The modeling approach is discussed and the factors which were most significantly related to mortality.

Description: This article offers a comprehensive approach for “lean” model risk management (MRM), i.e., the management of an MRM program with few or possibly one employee devoted to the role. It explores key objectives of an MRM program, essential process elements, tips for efficiency, and examine the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the models themselves and as a tool to increase efficiency of the program.

Description: This paper introduces and illustrates a new version of the Monte Carlo method that has attractive properties for the numerical valuation of derivatives. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods use deterministic sequences that are quasi-random sequences that result in better convergence and deterministic error bounds.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: This article discusses the pending elimination of Section 7 exemption for small companies.

Description: This article talks about replicating portfolios, a basket of financial instruments designed to replicate, as closely as possible, the value and market sensitivity of a target portfolio of liabilities in different economic scenarios.

Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: A data format for mortality tables along with applications.

Description: Private LTC insurers are paving the way for value-based care through working to implement care management programs that improve the lives of their policyholders before and during a claim. However, measuring the effectiveness of these new programs is a challenging task. In this article, we will explore powerful tools that can enhance traditional effectiveness studies and address some of their existing weaknesses.