Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: The results obtained during the last one-third of the research project and the project at whole are presented. The report only contains brief descriptions of the results which are placed in addendums and which are in reality copies of papers and a chapter of a book submitted for publication. Some theoretical and applied problems induced by the research are discussed.

Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: The theme of this paper relates to solving portfolio selection problems using linear programming. The authors extend the linear optimization framework for Conditional Value-at-Risk-based portfolio selection problems to optimization over a more general class of risk measure known as the class of Coherent Distortion Risk Measure. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012 Vol. 1.

Description: The Group Life Insurance Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries has completed the 2005 Group Term Life Waiver Reserve Table Report. There were several compelling reasons to develop a new experience study and table, not the least of which was that 35 years is a long interval for any study. This is the excel Calculation Spreadsheet for Reserve Factors for Group Term Waiver of Premium [NAIC version]. Please see the SOA website for the Report of the Group Life Experience Committee for March 2006.

Description: This summary is intended to provide the pension actuary with guidance in interpreting and using the termination and retirement information in the 2003 SOA Pension Plan Termination and Retirement Study. The tables in the study were developed based on 1.7 million life years of data from 112 plans collected primarily from actuarial consulting firms for the period 1995 – 2000.

Description: Chapter 7 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes the Social Security Administration's system of assumptions and modeling techniques used to project the finances of the Federal Old Age and Survivors Insurance OASI and Disability Insurance DI trust funds.

Description: In this project the researchers explored the new opportunities provided by the ongoing revolution in information technology for studies of exceptional human longevity. Methodologies and interpretation of the results were presented.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.