Description: While some people proclaim the imminent triumph of renewable energy, this article argues that fossil fuels will continue to be part of the energy mix.

Description: In this article the author argues that a falling currency is a symptom of a country’s economic problems and discusses Canada’s experience through late 1997, and concludes that the government’s fiscal and monetary policies were not the long term answer to the problem.

Description: Chronically low interest rates are a reflection of macroeconomic trends. Care must be exercised in making assumptions regarding mean reversion.

Description: What Makes the Yield Curve Move?

Description: Applies the economic concept of negative externality (where firms profit but create unacceptable social costs) to systemic of financial institutions. Identifies alternatives to the traditional (Pigou) response of taxing the firm.

Description: Summarizes the state of US government balance sheet and defends the view that inflation will not rise sharply in the next few years.

Description: This article discusses how pension accounting has an impact on the personal savings rate.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: This article questions the validity of long term market return expectations using macroeconomics and analytical arguments.

Description: Demographic challenges due to longevity increases and low fertility rates will lower economic growth as measured by GDP. By deconstructing GDP growth between population and productivity growth the article describes the problem and presents potential solutions. The article builds off an SOA research paper published in November 2023, Demographics and Productivity: Drivers of Economic Growth.