Description: Summary of all issue articles, with theme of recognizing limits of classical actuarial methods.

Description: The July 2013 issue of the SOA’s Forecasting & Futurism section’s newsletter, Forecasting & Futurism.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: A discussion on how to avoid bias when choosing research topics.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: This article describes the use of artificial society modeling to gauge the effect of insurance agent population and effectiveness on individual life insurance sales. This is part of an ongoing effort to extend the use of one type of agent-based modeling beyond health care, but is far from a practical application at this point.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: Specifies 6 rules which help shape not only good crime-scene analysis, but good futures practice, as well. These rules address project management and control.