Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: The article contemplates whether there is heightened sensitivity towards how investment activity is portrayed and described.

Description: The article discusses how well the GDP Gross Domestic Product reflects the true state of the economy. It also describes the process of calculating the GDP advance estimate, preliminary estimate and then final estimate.

Description: Projecting Budget Surpluses by Carl E. Walsh from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, April 2000, Issue No. 34. Discussion of the difficulties involved in making projections U.S. budget surpluses or deficits and how assumptions change.

Description: Demographic challenges due to longevity increases and low fertility rates will lower economic growth as measured by GDP. By deconstructing GDP growth between population and productivity growth the article describes the problem and presents potential solutions. The article builds off an SOA research paper published in November 2023, Demographics and Productivity: Drivers of Economic Growth.

Description: In insurance companies and pension plans currency risk arises when a company has future obligations in one currency and investments in another currency. The question that is often asked is whether this currency risk should hedged or not.

Description: This is the second part of a 2 part series on Real options analysis (ROA). This article looks into the limitations of using financial option theory when doing real options analysis with projects that are long-dated and uncertain, such as: 1. First-degree homogeneity, 2. Uncertainty must derive from Brownian motion, and 3. Risk neutrality.