Description: This article is the final installment of our three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I and II were published in the November 2019 and August 2020 issues of The Modeling Platform. Part III contextualizes the framework for selecting, building, and validating ESGs and focuses on the Academy Interest Rate Generator (“AIRG”), the most commonly used real-world ESG for US actuaries

Description: During March 2020, COVID-19 concerns escalated in the U.S. and lockdown measures were announced. Market returns in March 2020 were quite extreme and choppy, alternating between days of huge gains and losses. As investors prepare for the future, it is important to understand whether these volatility surges and sharp movements are understood and captured by commonly used models. In this article, we will explore equity market performance in 2020 using the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SP500TR) and the relevant equity modeling implications