Description: This article explores the market volatility of 2008, and addresses the following question: “was the market behaving inefficiently as appeared to be the case in 2008, or was there something truly rational going on, which for most people was hard to see?”

Description: “The Great Tech Bubble is one of the great bubbles and collapses in financial market history. It’s an excellent reminder of the madness that humans in financial markets are capable of. That’s just in case we need another reminder right now.”

Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: Review of the address given by Richard H. Thaler, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago at the Investment Section at the Society of Actuaries meeting in New York on October 20.

Description: At the November meeting of the IASB’s SAC, I raised strong support for the concept of a priority project to accelerate the development of a new conceptual framework for the IASB with emphasis on the role of reliability, the definition of liability, the meaning of probable, the effects of contingencies i.e. contingent probabilities, the unit of account and accounting for contractual rights and obligations. Editor’s note: This is an excerpt from a longer address to the International Accounting Standards Board on guiding principles.

Description: This article provides a view on financial market dynamics and how this view can be applied to the Japanese public equity markets today.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: This article discusses capital market cycles, specifically considering whether or not 2008 was a good time to buy. It concludes that “stocks have likely only recently entered the buying opportunity range on an aggregate basis. However, from a psychological and risk management perspective, we should strongly consider that stock prices will revert beyond the mean for many years, perhaps even decades, before they get better.”

Description: Argues public plans should only hold bonds, on the basis of tax and finance arguments.

Description: This article gives an overview and explanation of behavioral finance.