Description: Summary of the SOA's research report Modern Deterministic Scenarios for Interest Rates, which developed interest rate scenarios for use in cash flow testing.

Description: The authors explore a new approach to the premium persistency assumption in universal life products.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: This article explores strategies for optimizing actuarial models built on open system platforms. It begins by contrasting open and closed system modeling environments, emphasizing that users of open systems must take responsibility for in-house runtime optimization. The authors underscore the critical role that efficient, well-optimized models play in supporting a high-performing modeling team. To reinforce the techniques discussed, the article includes a case study focused on disability insurance modeling to offer practical insights.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: The author provides an overview of terms that have gained favor in sociology, physics, engineering and anthropology that should be of interest to actuaries.

Description: The April 2016 Issue of The Modeling Platform

Description: A summary of Modeling Section-sponsored sessions at the 2016 Life/Annuity Symposium, covering model risk management, model governance, and model efficiency.