Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: This summary explains the techniques used and the results from the application of futurism techniques utilized to explore mortality improvement. From the 2008 SOA Spring Meeting, Quebec City.

Description: Appendix C is round 1 reasons for projections from the Delphi report. See the SOA webite Research pages for the complete report of Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes the full report along with all the appendices.

Description: Appendix F is round 1 future developments from the Delphi report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all of the appendices.

Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Appendix E is round 2 on comments on application of judgmental methods from the Delphi study. See the SOA Website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the variables.

Description: The Study was designed to elicit reasons behind the participants’ judgments about the future course of the four variables. In the first round participants were asked to provide judgments about the value of the four variables in 2024 and the reasons behind their judgments. The four variables were 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa yield. In addition, they were asked to list future developments that could cause historical trends in the variables to change. Finally they were asked to express their views on how the judgmental process employed in this study might influence the use and interpretation of traditional actuarial e.g., stochastic, deterministic estimation processes or to aid in planning. The data were collated between rounds and in the second Round, the responses of the group were provided to the participants.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: This article offers a critique of explanatory text and principal economic and demographic assumption tables from the 2003 Annual report of the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Fund. From Pension Section News, March 2004, Issue No. 54.

Description: Two letters to the editor of Pension Section News. Both letters are responses to David Langer's comments which were published in the January 2006 Pension Section News regarding Social Security and its financial projections. From Pension Section News, April 2006, No. 61.