Description: Even the best algorithms are only effective if they are trained on appropriate data. This article discusses common pitfalls in creating a training data set.

Description: A discussion on artificial intelligence.

Description: Read the March 2018 issue of Small Talk published by Smaller Insurance Company Section. Practical information on trends that impact sections and activities.

Description: This actually is a copy of an appendix of a research paper sponsored by the SOA Committee on Finance Research. You can read the entire research paper: “Lapse Modeling for the Post-Level Period—a Practical Application of Predictive Modeling” at the SOA site https://www.soa.org/Research/Research-Projects/Finance-Investment/lapse-2015-modeling-post-level/#sthash.W9lERSls.dpbs, but you can read this valuable appendix copied here in this issue to see how to build a PM step-by-step using your data and the R programming language. We thank Richard Xu, Dihui Lai, Minyu Cao, Scott Rushing, and Tim Rozar for their excellent paper and the Society of Actuaries, for the permission to reprint this portion of the paper.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: Chairperson's column for the July 2016 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism.

Description: This article goes through some basic data exploration techniques to show how different approaches look.

Description: Although rate structures where low-cost cohorts subsidize high cost cohorts may be justified from a actuarial, marketing, or legal standpoint, the subsidization creates risks which must be understood and monitored. This article presents the concept of subsidization signature to measure and interpret the effects of rate subsidization, and to assess the sustainability of rating structures and the sensitivity of business mix assumptions.

Description: A closer look at family tier factor rating assumptions, and how well they reflect actual claim cost data.

Description: A review of the Bridging the Gap Series: Application of Predictive Modeling in VA/FIA Risk Management at the Equity Based Guarantees Conference in Chicago.