Education and Examination Committee of the
SOA Syllabus
& Examination Committees of the CAS
Winter/Spring 2007-Exam P/Exam 1 Probability
Introductory Study Note
Finance - The Probability examinations for Winter and Spring 2007 will
each be three-hour exams. The exam is now being administered in
most locations as a computer-based test. Details on this appear
earlier in the catalog in the Exam P Computer-Based Testing Administration
Details section.
- The exam will consist of 30 multiple-choice questions. Each
multiple-choice problem includes five answer choices identified by
the letters A, B, C, D, and E, only one of which is correct.
Candidates must indicate responses to each question on the
computer. Candidates will be given three hours to complete the
exam. At the end of three hours, the candidate may no longer
respond to the questions.
As part of the computer-based testing process, a few pilot
questions will be randomly placed in the exam (paper -and-pencil
and computer-based forms). These pilot questions are included to
judge their effectiveness for future exams, but they will NOT be
used in the scoring of this exam. All other questions will be
considered in the scoring. The score for the examination is
determined solely on the basis of correct answers. Therefore,
candidates should answer every question to maximize their
scores.
With the introduction of computer-based testing, a different
approach to test development is being followed. Since
computer-based testing will be offered over a period of a few days,
multiple forms of the test are being created for use. Each
candidate will receive a test form composed of questions selected
from a pool of questions. Statistical scaling methods are used to
ensure within reasonable and practical limits that, during the same
testing period of a few days, all forms of the test are comparable
in content and passing criteria. The methodology that has been
adopted is used by many credentialing programs that give multiple
forms of an exam.
- Any changes in the Course of Reading for this exam since the
publication of the Spring 2007 Basic Education Catalog of the SOA
or the 2007 Syllabus of Examinations of the CAS are reflected in
this Introductory Study Note and will also be posted on our Web
sites. If any difference exists between information contained in
this Introductory Study Note and that contained in the Spring 2007
Basic Education Catalog or the 2007 Syllabus of Examinations, this
Introductory Study Note will govern.
- The study notes for this exam include sample questions and
solutions. The sample questions provide candidates with the
opportunity to practice on the types of questions that are likely
to appear on the examination. New sample questions will be released
periodically or whenever the nature of the examination changes
substantially.
- The following list contains all study notes for this exam in
Winter/Spring 2007. Candidates who have ordered the complete set of
study notes should verify immediately that they have copies of the
listed items. Items marked with a # are new/updated for these
sessions.
The study note entitled "Risk and Insurance" is provided to
acquaint candidates with the language of insurance. It is not
intended to introduce new mathematical concepts, but rather to
introduce candidates to terminology, context, and applications
which they may not have seen before and which may be used in the
examination. The mathematical concepts tested in the Exam P
exa`mination are covered entirely by the published texts suggested
in the course of reading listed in the Spring 2007 Basic Catalog
and the 2007 Syllabus of Examinations.
- A copy of the mathematical tables and information to be used
during the exam is enclosed. Candidates should familiarize
themselves with the formats and contents of these tables. A copy
will be available during in the CBT examination by clicking on the
"Exhibit" button on screen. A paper copy will be included with the
paper and pencil examination. Note that candidates will not be
allowed to bring copies of the tables into the examination
room.
- Several book distributors carry some or all of the textbooks
for the Society of Actuaries and Casualty Actuarial Society
courses. A list of distributors appears in the Spring 2007 Basic
Education Catalog and 2007 Syllabus of Examinations. A set of order
forms from these distributors is included with this study note
package.
The order forms contain information about prices, shipping
charges, mailing policy and credit card acceptance. Any book
distributor who carries books for SOA or CAS courses may have its
order form included in this set unless the SOA office receives
substantial complaints about service. Candidates should notify the
Publication Orders Department of the SOA in writing if they
encounter serious problems with any distributor.
- Candidates may use the battery or solar-powered Texas
Instruments BA-35 model calculator, BA II Plus*, BA II Plus
Professional*, TI-30X, TITI-30Xa or TI-30X II*. Candidates may use
more than one of the approved calculators during the
examination.
Calculator instructions cannot be brought into the exam room.
During the exam, the calculator must be removed from its carrying
case so the supervisor can confirm it is an approved model.
Candidates using a calculator other than the approved models will
have their exams disqualified.
Candidates can purchase calculators directly from: Texas
Instruments, Attn: Order Entry, PO Box 650311, Mail Station 3962,
Dallas, TX 75265, phone 800.842.2737, or epsstore.ti.com.
*The memory of the TI-30X ll, BA ll Plus and BA II Plus
Professional will need to be cleared by the examination supervisor
upon the candidate's entrance to the examination room.
- Order forms for various seminars/workshops and study manuals
are included with this set of study notes. These seminars/workshops
and study manuals do not reflect any official interpretation,
opinion, or endorsement of the Society of Actuaries or the Casualty
Actuarial Society.
- A candidate planning to seek admission to the SOA should submit
the Application for Admission as Associate before completing the
education requirements for Associateship as detailed in the Current Basic Education
Catalog.
- The Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society
provide study notes to persons preparing for this examination. They
are intended to acquaint candidates with some of the theoretical
and practical considerations involved in the various subjects.
While varying opinions are presented where appropriate, limits on
the length of the material and other considerations sometimes
prevent the inclusion of all possible opinions. These study notes
do not, however, represent any official opinion, interpretation or
endorsement of the Casualty Actuarial Society or the Society of
Actuaries. The Societies are grateful to the authors for their
contributions in preparing study notes.
The Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society
jointly sponsor and jointly administer Exams P, FM and C.
The American Academy of Actuaries (AAA), the Conference of
Consulting Actuaries (CCA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries
jointly sponsor the Associateship and Fellowship examinations with
the SOA.
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