Announcement: SOA releases October 2019 Exam FM passing candidate numbers.

Long-Term Care Think Tank Sidebar: The Survey Says

Long–Term Care Think Tank Sidebar: The Survey Says
by Emily Kessler

The "risk/delivery/protection" framework was first presented to participants in a survey that participants took prior to attending the seminar. That survey was designed to get participant opinions on how the system might evolve over the next five to 10 years. The results of the survey determined what issues were further explored in the Think Tank.

The survey asked questions regarding approximately 50 specific trends. The trends were loosely grouped in broad categories of economic/regulatory changes, medical care/delivery, consumers and insurers. For each trend, participants were asked: "What is your perception of the likelihood of significant activity or change over the next 5-10 years in each of these issues or trends?" Secondly, participants were asked: "Assuming this activity or change in a particular area were to occur over the next 5-10 years, please indicate the most relevant level of impact for each of these issues and trends as they pertain to risk, delivery and protection."

Key Drivers for the System
In discussing the survey results, Think Tank participants came to a consensus as to six significant issues or trends that are driving changes in the LTC system.

Participants used the survey results, their interpretation of and reaction to those results, as well as other knowledge to develop the issues on which to focus the rest of the Think Tank discussion. The six trends that were focused on, and some topics that fall under those trends, are:

  • Public Funding
    1. Medicaid Funding Crisis
    2. Medicare Reimbursement Policy
    3. Public Values/Expectations
    4. Intergenerational Wealth Transfer
  • Changes in How/Where Care Delivered
    1. Tight Labor Market
  • (Likely) Morbidity Improvement
    1. Changes in Alzheimer's Disease
  • Demographic Age Wave
  • Availability of Capital
    1. Global Perspective
  • Underwriting/Antiselection

These six trends became the focus of the discussion as participants first further fleshed out the issues and their implications and then worked out alternatives for potential solutions.