2023 ImpACT Conference - Session 6D: The Pandemic Modeling Journey: The Evolution of Views on Pandemics and Pandemic Models 10.24.23 Recording

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an acute reminder of the material impacts that pandemics can have on Life (re)insurance and society at large. Learn to describe the journey of a Life reinsurance practitioner to model and operationalize pandemic and infectious disease risk, why this is of importance to actuaries, and their risk management. It will consider how such models have been used, developments over time, and challenges in using and calibrating these models. The session will also provide perspectives from a pandemic model provider who will describe the fundamental metrics for pandemic loss distributions and how learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic can be used to quantify the potential impact of the next pandemic. Finally, dive into an outline of how biological principles can be applied to anticipating plausible pathogens causing the next pandemic. Key learning objectives include: - Understanding the use cases of pandemic modelling for life actuaries - Appreciating the practical issues regarding implementation and embedding of pandemic models into internal processes - Understanding key metrics such as exceedance probability - Understanding how learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic have informed modelling of future pandemic impacts and the broad range of potential pathogens that could cause the next major pandemic TRACK: Assumptions and Experience Studies (Mortality, Longevity Improvements, Interest Rates, NGE, Etc.);ERM/ Capital Risk/ Climate Change