Human longevity is one of the great success stories of the past century, and there is growing consensus that there are further gains to come. What will these future gains look like, where will they come from and how likely are they to happen. Furthermore, how do we as actuaries deal with the uncertainty when trying to predict future long-term mortality improvements more than 20 years into the future. This is one of the most important assumptions on the balance sheet that insurers and reinsurers make, so it is important to have a strong perspective on it. Our presentation will give attendees a view into some of the core components of how to assess long-term mortality improvements by looking at the cyclical nature across different countries of life expectancy. It will also deep dive into the different drivers of life expectancy over the past cycle driven largely by improved diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cessation of smoking, which ended in about 2010. It will then discuss how population mortality improvement has slowed and plateaued in many major countries. A key focus of the presentation will be giving a view of how to make forward-looking assumptions into identifying the factors that may produce the next major wave of mortality improvements. We will discuss both a quantitative and qualitative approach to mortality prediction based on estimates of the possible impact of medical advancements on health. These insights will give attendees the opportunity to see the areas where they should look to focus their energy in creating mortality products and how to drive health impacts. We will touch on how this can link into future insurance product design and insurance underwriting questions. TRACK: Assumptions and Experience Studies (Mortality, Longevity Improvements, Interest Rates, NGE, Etc.);Predictive Modeling
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