In this discussion Arun Paul discusses the critical assumption of persistency in Long-Term Care insurance. This is a key driver in LTC pricing and reserve settling. Persistency is categorized into active mortality (for non-disabled policyholders), disabled mortality (for those on claim), and voluntary lapse rates. The conversation explores how active mortality is influenced by aging policyholders and the evolving demographics. It also delves into the patterns of disabled mortality, which tend to have an initial spike in the early claim period. Finally, Arun, discusses the impact of low lapse rates on LTC products, leading to increased costs for carriers and the introduction of options like rate increases and benefit buy-downs for policyholders.
Contributors: Arun Paul, FSA MAAA, Juliet Spector FSA MAAA, Jeremy Hamilton FSA MAAA, Matt Morton, FSA MAAA , Jon Forster ASA MAAA