2024 ValAct Meeting - Session 1C: A GLMmer of Hope: An Accessible Predictive Modeling Primer 8.26.24 Recording

Does this sound familiar? Your data analytics team created a flashy Generalized Linear Model (GLM) for a key assumption that you're assigned to review and approve for valuation purposes. The only problem is … you don't know the first thing about these models! This session will cover everything you've wanted to know about GLMs but were too afraid to ask. How do these generalized models relate to the plain linear regression, and how can we be sure that the models we implement are appropriate for the task at hand? In a talk that develops intuition through approachable visuals, you will learn the basics of GLMs so that you are armed with the right vocabulary and knowledge to tackle the next model that crosses your path. Learning outcomes for participants include: - How to explain a GLM in simple, practical terms that any actuary would understand. - How generalized linear models solve some limitations of simple linear regression. - How to interpret a few of the most common forms of GLMs in actuarial applications. - What questions to ask when introduced to a GLM, and how to ensure it is appropriate for the problem. - Where GLM's fall short, and why over-fitting requires special attention.